Examples

Using the US Dollar and Polish Zloty to Ruble currency crosses as examples, it is important to determine the best outright rate of exchange for a business in the long term period.


International Foreign Exchange

Market Report

Thursday 4th July, 2013



UK News

Mark Carney's first week at the Bank of England got even better yesterday as the UK Services PMI figures put in a "stellar" performance with their strongest growth for more than two years in June completing an economic hat trick after upbeat manufacturing and construction data this week putting the country well on the road to recovery.

The Services PMI jumped by 2 points to 56.9 in June, the highest since March 2011. The improvement was driven by the business expectations component which rose 0.9 points to 69.3 while the new business component rose to the highest level since mid-2007.

GBPUSD strengthened off the back of the positive PMI data gaining over 0.9% upon the release of the strong PMI figures. The pair opened near the session low of 1.5126 but rose sharply upon the release to touch a high of 1.5292. This morning the pair opened at 1.5252.

GBPEUR displayed a similar pattern to cable opening near the low at 1.1658, the pair was propelled by the same data release to achieve the high of 1.1778 failing to break the physiological level of 1.18. The pair opened this morning at 1.1741.

There is increased focus on today’s BoE MPC meeting as it will be Carney’s first. While no change in policy is expected, the market has approached this meeting with some caution, as some see potential risks the Bank may decide to issue an accompanying statement. However, even if that was the case it is doubtful anything substantive will be communicated at this stage, and if these suspicions are unfounded, this will likely trigger initial market relief.


International News

EURUSD saw a positive increase opening near the session low of 1.2920 but shooting up to the high of 1.3032 in afternoon trade helped by positive Eurozone Retail Sales figures MoM read as 1.0%, a solid increase from the previous -0.2% especially since economists had only expected a modest increase to 0.2%.

The US received a mixed bag of economic data, the key points being related to employment. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change rose to 188K, a significant improvement on the previous reading of 134K exceeding even the market estimate of 160K. Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims, again, key indicators of employment levels, both fell significantly and beyond market expectations, the latter from 348K to 343K. Markets are closed in the US today for Independence Day.

The National Bank of Poland cut its interest rate yesterday from 2.75% to 2.5% the lowest on record, the bank did made it clear however that this was the last of its campaign of monetary policy easing that began in 2012. Earlier this year the country’s GDP forecast was revised downward to 0.5-1.7% from the March forecast of 0.6-2%.

Portugal dived deeper into the mire as 10 year bond yields shot up beyond the 7% level generally considered to be unsustainable. This was in response to fears that the conservatives, the Democratic and Social Center Party which was led by Mr Portas until his resignation on Tuesday, could withdraw its support for the government.

Canada's trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in May with imports falling twice as fast as exports, highlighting the challenges facing exporters from an uncertain economy.

Egypt's markets which plunged when the first Tahrir protests began and stayed closed for almost two months, has has risen almost 10 percent in the last few days. It suggests that Egyptian (and some foreign) investors welcome the return of the military-run status quo.


Economic Calendar (GMT)

Time


Event


Forecast

Previous

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (JUL 4)

0.50%

0.50%

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target

375B

375B

11:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

11:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUL 4)


0.50%

11:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate

0.00%

0.00%

12:30

EUR ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision



23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUN)


35.3

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index


35.3

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets


$1250.2B


Interbank Exchange Rates (09:00)

 

GBP

EUR

USD

HKD

AUD

CAD

ZAR

NOK

SEK

CHF

GBP


1.1739

1.5246

11.821

1.6750

1.6038

15.344

9.3217

10.216

1.4477

EUR

0.8521


1.2988

10.071

1.4270

1.3662

13.071

7.9411

8.7031

1.2335

USD

0.6558

0.7698


7.7532

1.0984

1.0520

10.064

6.1129

6.6996

0.9496


Support and Resistance Levels

GBP/USD

Support

1.5170

1.5062

1.4996

Resistance

1.5344

1.5410

1.5518

GBP/EUR

Support

1.1669

1.1597

1.1537

Resistance

1.1801

1.1861

1.1933

EUR/USD

Support

1.2941

1.2877

1.2832

Resistance

1.3050

1.3095

1.3159


GBP/EUR

GBP/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/EUR Graph

GBP/USD Graph

EUR/USD Graph


To trade or for any other enquiry, please contact me on +44 (0)20 3005 8896.

Jo Baron

Executive Dealer

www.internationalfx.com